By Jeff Mitchell, Head of School, Currey Ingram Academy, Brentwood, TN
The National Association of Independent Schools (NAIS) and regional independent school associations, including SAIS, have provided extensive opportunities for support and discussion as we have negotiated this tricky year.
Much has been shared, speculated, and advised during the hundreds of association webinars on the pandemic’s impact on our strategic path and our most important school indicators. In this FastStats, the presented data answers questions about the impact of the pandemic on some of those indicators. As usual, we will compare SAIS schools versus all NAIS schools as well as provide summary data from several other regions around the country.
Specifically, this FastStats will focus on the impact of the pandemic on these categories for this academic year:
In order to focus squarely on data that demonstrates the impact of the pandemic these charts present the percent change of the specific indicator for 2020-2021 compared to the percent change average over the three previous years. This approach allows us to be more certain that changes in data trends this year are unique.
To set the foundation for the analyses, Figure 1 shows the count of schools from each of the comparison groups within NAIS’s DASL for this FastStats. Clearly, there are robust numbers of schools within each comparison group. Bear in mind, not all schools have provided the data being considered, so the number of schools reporting for each indicator may vary.
Figure 2 shows the impact of the pandemic on enrollment for SAIS schools versus all NAIS schools, comparing the percentage change in enrollment for 2020-2021, versus the average percentage change for the previous three years. Thus, for all NAIS schools the previous three years saw an average annual decrease in enrollment of -1.11%. For this year, enrollment decreased by -0.57%. For SAIS schools, the previous three years saw an average annual increase in enrollment of 0.03%, whereas during the pandemic year enrollment increased by 0.91%. Therefore, NAIS and SAIS schools as a group seemed to enjoy modest enrollment boosts this year, relative to the three previous years. Note, however, that the NAIS trend is still negative, just not as much.
The chart below compares enrollment trends across regions. There is some interesting regional variability here. Schools in New England did not see much enrollment fluctuation – a very modest increase from 0.08% to 0.33%. Whereas schools in the East (-2.42% to 1.84%) and Mid-Atlantic (-1.83% to 0.71%) saw more robust increases. Schools in the Midwest (-2.59% to -6.88%) and West (0.71% to -2.10%) saw unhealthy decreases.
The chart below shows the raw median enrollment data, from which the percentages calculated:
Figure 3 shows the changes in tuition for SAIS schools versus all NAIS schools during the pandemic, comparing the percentage change in tuition for 2020-2021 versus the average percentage change for the previous three years. Thus, for all NAIS schools the previous three years saw an average annual increase in tuition of 4.01%. For this year, tuition increased by 3.74%. For SAIS schools, the previous three years saw an average annual increase in tuition of 3.97%, whereas during the pandemic year tuition increased by 3.13%. Not surprisingly, NAIS and SAIS schools modestly moderated their tuition increases for this academic year.
The chart below compares tuition increase trends across regions. Again, there is interesting regional variability. New England was the only region to see an increase this year versus previous years, although minimal. All the other regions saw softening tuition increases, with the West down from 5.21% to 3.17% (2.04%) and the Midwest down from 3.65% to 2.09% (1.56%).
Here is the raw data for median tuition across each of the regions.
Figure 4 shows the impact of the pandemic on financial aid funding for SAIS schools versus all NAIS schools, comparing the percentage change in financial aid funding for 2020-2021 versus the average percentage change for the previous three years. Thus, for all NAIS schools the previous three years saw an average annual increase in financial aid funding of 4.25%. For this year, financial aid funding increased by 6.89%, a difference of 2.64%. For SAIS schools, the previous three years saw an average annual increase in financial aid funding of 3.43%, whereas during the pandemic year financial aid funding decreased by -2.26%. This is a substantial 5.69% difference.
Interesting: financial aid funding increases seem to have a lot more to do with bolstering enrollment nationally (NAIS schools) than it did in SAIS schools. Remember, enrollment in SAIS schools saw an almost 1% increase this year versus the previous three years combined, but the added enrollment does not seem to be a product of increasing financial aid.
The chart below compares financial aid funding trends across regions. This might be the most instructive data in this FastStats. There is significant variability. In New England, financial aid funding increased by 13% this year, versus the previous three-year average of 8.46% – a difference of 4.54%. Schools in the West saw a 15.77% increase in financial aid funding this year versus the three-year average of 5.46% – a whopping 10.31% increase. It seems that financial aid funding increases in New England and the West mitigated enrollment decreases. Finally, for the Midwest financial aid funding decreased by -13.21% this year, compared with an average increase of 10.22% over the previous three years – an astounding 23.43% difference.
Take a deeper dive into the raw median financial aid funding dollars for each comparison group below.
Supporting the conclusions from the financial funding analyses, Figure 5 shows the impact of the pandemic on financial aid count for SAIS schools versus all NAIS schools, comparing the percentage change in financial aid count for 2020-2021 versus the average percentage change for the previous three years. Thus, for all NAIS schools the previous three years saw an average annual increase in financial aid count of 0.72%. For this year, financial aid count increased by 3.19%. For SAIS schools, the previous three years saw an average annual increase in financial aid count of 2.79%, whereas during the pandemic year financial aid count increased by only 1.63%. Relative to previous years, a higher percentage of students received financial aid in all NAIS schools this year and a smaller percentage of students received financial aid in SAIS schools.
The chart below compares financial aid count trends across regions. The reader can clearly see the regions like New England, where there was a relative increase in the number of students receiving financial aid: the percentage of students receiving financial aid increased by 8.16% this year, versus the previous three-year average of 3.85% – a difference of 4.31%. Similarly, in the Mid-Atlantic region where the percentage of students receiving financial aid increased by 5.66% this year, versus the previous three-year average of -1.45% – a difference of 7.11%. The Midwest had the biggest swing, where financial aid count decreased by -12.21% this year, compared with an average increase of 8.52% over the previous three years – a 20.73% difference.
I speculate that the steep enrollment drop noted above for Midwest schools meant less need. It is also possible that collectively schools in the Midwest may not have been able to respond to increased demand for financial aid funding, like schools in New England, so they lost some of those families that needed more aid this year.
Explore the raw median financial aid count data for each comparison group.
Another suspected impact of the pandemic was higher faculty and staff turnover. Unfortunately, DASL does not have a direct measure of turnover. Thus, as a proxy, we can look at the median tenure of faculty. The assumption is that there may have been a downward trend in tenure this year due to a disproportionate number of more experienced faculty leaving schools and being replaced by less experienced faculty.
The chart below shows the median tenure of faculty across the various associations. A quick glance at the chart shows that the median tenure of faculty has remained practically unchanged across all associations. In fact, the SAIS median tenure increased by one year in 2020-2021. Thus, it seems this year has really been no different, than previous years regarding turnover. Time will tell if schools see more turnover for next year, particularly as the economy stabilizes and independent school staff feel more capable of making a career change.
In the least surprising result of this FastStats, Figure 6 shows the substantial impact of the pandemic on summer program revenue for SAIS schools versus all NAIS schools, comparing the percentage change in summer program revenue for 2020-2021 versus the average percentage change for the previous three years. Thus, for all NAIS schools the previous three years saw an average annual increase in summer program revenue of 2.88%. For this year, summer program revenue decreased by -19.39%. For SAIS schools, the previous three years saw an average annual increase in summer program revenue of 5.71%, whereas during the pandemic year summer program revenue decreased by -6.91%. Considering how conservative our collective decision making was last summer, I am surprised the hit on summer program revenue within SAIS schools was not greater.
The chart below really highlights how all regions across the country were hit hard last summer, although you can clearly see not quite as much in the SAIS membership.
Confirming the percentages, here is the raw median data for summer program revenue as reported in DASL.
Conclusion
Overall, the data in this FastStats shows some significant and telling regional differences when looking at the impact of the pandemic on enrollment, tuition, financial aid, and summer program revenue.
The overarching conclusion is that the SAIS, relative to most regions across the country, has fared very well in this year of the pandemic. I believe the political and cultural climate of the Southeast, and the concomitant decision making that prevailed in our schools to be more “normal,” led to a disproportionately higher number of schools in the SAIS being in-person, with more typical campus activities – and we were rewarded by an eager market with relative enrollment increases, without the need for supporting financial aid increases. This market was further bolstered in some regions by families moving into some areas, seeking an independent school education.
Frankly, we were both good and lucky. Hundreds of person hours were spent hammering out what on-campus learning would look like, with some amazingly creative solutions. However, any head of school who said last summer “we will open in-person, we will have few major disruptions, and in fact it will be a bumper year for enrollment,” is a far wiser and more clairvoyant person than me.
It will be interesting to look at subsequent years data to see whether the relative benefits from the pandemic our region has enjoyed are sustained, as well as what the recovery looks like around the country.
